The Data Point published on Wednesday discussed in detail the spoiler effect created by Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) in the 2020 Bihar Assembly election and examined the possibility of it influencing the upcoming 2025 polls as well. This effect was one of the key reasons the 2020 election turned out to be a closely fought contest between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the RJD-led mahagatbandhan (grand alliance). Today, we will examine another major reason behind the close contest in 2020—the Congress party’s poor performance—and assess whether this imbalance within the alliance could influence the outcome of the 2025 polls. In 2020, Congress recorded a contested vote share of 32.9%, the lowest among major mahagatbandhan alliance partners, as shown in Table below. In comparison, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) secured 39%, CPI 33.3%, CPI(M) 37.6%, and CPI(ML)(L) 41.4%. Contested vote share refers to the percentage of votes a party receives in the seats it fought. In the 2015 election, Congress recorded a contested vote share of 39.5%. Table 2 shows the strike rate of parties, calculated by …