4 min readMay 22, 2026 06:16 PM IST First published on: May 22, 2026 at 06:16 PM IST India’s fertiliser problem has quietly changed character. For the first several weeks after Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz in the aftermath of the US-Israel strikes in late February, the dominant anxiety in New Delhi was physical: Would the fertilisers arrive, and in time? With the critical kharif sowing season beginning in June, the real issue is no longer whether India can source enough fertiliser but whether New Delhi can keep paying for the guarantee that it will. India’s fertiliser production declined 24.6 per cent in March 2026, the sharpest single-month contraction in recent memory, after output had expanded for three consecutive months prior. The government has committed to absorbing the cost of guaranteeing supply, and if the Gulf conflict endures, that commitment may prove open-ended in ways the fiscal budget cannot easily accommodate. With the sowing season peaking in June, allowing farm input costs to rise visibly would risk both food price inflation and a …