Is India Prepared for its Demographic Destiny?
4 min readJun 26, 2026 08:13 PM IST First published on: Jun 26, 2026 at 08:13 PM IST Recently, the Sample Registration System (SRS) and the sixth round of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) released their results. What do they say about India’s future population size? A University of Washington team had estimated India’s total fertility rate (TFR) to be 1.9 in 2017, and its model showed that the population in India will peak at 160 crore in 2048. However, this estimate is optimistic as SRS estimates TFR to be 1.9 in 2024. The UN Population Division periodically updates its population projections and has estimated that the population is likely to peak at 170 crore in 2062 and decline thereafter. In view of the recent data, this is perhaps the most likely scenario. There is very gradual progress, and, therefore, problems persist. The sex ratio at birth was estimated to be 918 in 2022-24, signifying a persistent “girl deficit” as the normal ratio is 955. It was 907 in 2018-2020. At this pace of …









