Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman said as much in her short speech quoting Prime Minister Narendra Modi, “we need to focus on four major castes. They are, ‘Garib’ (Poor), ‘Mahilayen’ (Women), ‘Yuva’ (Youth) and ‘Annadata’ (Farmer). Their needs, their aspirations, and their welfare are our highest priority. The country progresses when they progress. All four require and receive government support in their quest to better their lives.”

Clearly, if these four segments or `castes’, which constitute the bulk of Indian voters, decide to back the current dispensation, a third term for the BJP is pretty much a done deal.

The speech of the finance minister focused clearly on some of these achievements that concern the common man.

• Worries about food have been eliminated with free rations for 80 crore people
• 12. 25 crores Indians were pulled out of multi- dimensional poverty by the government over the past 10 years, i.e. two terms of the Modi government.
• Government could save 2.7-lakh crore through avoidance of leakages
• Minimum support prices (MSP) for ‘Annadata’ (farmers) increased periodically
• Direct financial assistance was extended to 11.8 crore farmers
• Female enrolment in higher education has gone up by 28 percent in 10 years
• Average real income has increased by 50 percent
• Every year under PM Kisan Samman Yojana, direct financial assistance is provided to 11.8 crore farmers, including marginal and small farmers.
• PM SVANIDHI has provided credit assistance to 78 lakh street vendors; from that total, 2.3 lakh have received credit for the third time
• PM JANMAN Yojana reaches out particularly vulnerable tribal groups
• PM Vishakarma Yojana provides end to end support to artisans and craftspeople
• Scheme for empowerment of Divyang and transgender people
• Skill India Mission has trained 1.4 crore youth, upskilled and reskilled 54 lakh youth and established 3,000 new ITIs.
• Large number of institutions of higher learning, namely seven IITs, 16 IIITs, 7 IIMs, 15 AIIMSs and 390 universities have been set up.
• Female enrolment in higher education has gone up by 28 percent in 10 years
• In STEM courses, girls and women constitute 43 percent of enrolment, one of the highest in the world
• All these are getting reflected in increasing participation of women in the workforce.

All told, with not much room to announce in the interim budget as the new government will present a full budget post the General Election, the finance minister affirmed that India is on the path of reforms. “In recognition of India’s federal Constitution, the finance minister did well to highlight that the reform process will be continued in consultation with state governments,’’ Siraj Hussain, former Union Agriculture Secretary and Advisor Food Processing, FICCI, told this reporter.

Added Hussain: “The FM rightly took the credit for handsome hikes in MSP and proactive management of food inflation in challenging geopolitical circumstances.’’

Nevertheless, that elections are on the government’s mind was equally clear. For instance, the FM took the credit for continuation of commitment to distribute highly subsidised foodgrains under the National Food Security Act 2013, that was enacted by the last government, and which allows the government to raise the issue price after three years. Instead of revisiting the number of really deserving people, the government made it free from January 1.

Ditto for those who have come out of the poverty line. A Niti Aayog report showed that multidimensional poverty had declined from 29.17 percent in 2013 to 11.28 percent in 2022-23, prompting the obvious question as to why the government decided to make foodgrains free for all!

Says NR Bhanumurthy, Vice-Chancellor of the Dr BR Ambedkar School of Economics, Bengaluru: “This interim budget is not a one-off. What we see today is a continuation of an improvement in the public delivery architecture and its outcomes. The delivery outcomes improved between 2004 and 2014 and has improved even further in the last decade with this government’s stress on helping `labhartis’ or beneficiaries.”

The point about pulling a huge mass of people out of the poverty line, Bhanumurthy pointed out, is also correct “because whether you choose the caloric definition of the poverty line or the multi-dimensional theory adopted by this government, a significant mass of population has been pulled out dire poverty because of improvement in delivery mechanism of the government,” he told this reporter.

There appears to be some divided consensus on improvements in public delivery mechanisms though. Economist Arun Kumar, formerly of JNU, who has authored ‘Demonetization and Black Economy’, believes that “we need to differentiate between optics and hard numbers.”

“While the government has made several announcements, the efficiency of their delivery systems can be judged only by the public. Often, there is a huge allocation in some sectors, but the numbers are cut down drastically in revised estimates, which is not announced. The public only looks at the optics not at hard data,” he told this reporter.