The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that India is likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the 2026 monsoon season. Overall rainfall between June and September is expected to be around 90 per cent of the usual average, with a possible variation of 4 per cent.
This is lower than the earlier estimate of 92 per cent issued in April and is also the lowest pre-monsoon forecast released by the IMD in recent years.
According to the weather department, there is a 60 per cent probability that rainfall this year will fall in the “deficient” category, which refers to rainfall below 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The IMD, however, clarified that it does not officially declare drought conditions and only classifies rainfall levels.
Monsoon arrival likely delayed
The monsoon, which was earlier expected to arrive in Kerala and southern regions on May 26, is now likely to reach the state during the first week of June.
Ministry of Earth Sciences Secretary M Ravichandran said, “The monsoon has arrived on India’s southern seas but has unfortunately not arrived on the land.”
Several regions may receive below-normal rainfall
IMD Director General M Mohapatra said northwest, central and southern India are likely to witness below-normal rainfall this season.
The weather agency’s forecast suggests that most parts of the country may receive less rainfall than usual, except some areas of northeast India, parts of the eastern coast and isolated pockets in east-central India where normal to above-normal rainfall is possible.
The monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is expected to remain around 90 per cent of the LPA, which is based on an average rainfall of 87 cm recorded between 1971 and 2020.
Probability of South West monsoon
What is happening right now with El Nino?
At present, weather conditions in the Pacific Ocean are “neutral,” meaning neither El Nino nor La Nina is active. But the IMD says these conditions, neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is now slowly moving towards an El Nino phase, which is usually linked to weaker monsoon rainfall and hotter weather in India while neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are expected to continue during the monsoon season.
Weather models used by the IMD indicate that El Nino conditions are likely to strengthen during the southwest monsoon months from June to September
Heatwave risk and rising temperatures
The weather department also warned that both daytime and night-time temperatures are likely to remain “on the higher side” during June.
Above-normal temperatures are expected across most parts of the country, while several states could face more heatwave days than usual.
States likely to experience above-normal heatwave conditions include: Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh. Some parts of Maharashtra, Telangana, Himachal Pradesh and Tamil Nadu may also witness heatwave conditions.
The IMD warned that prolonged heat could affect public health, water availability, power consumption and essential services.
Impact on agriculture and water resources
The IMD said below-normal rainfall may create challenges for agriculture, hydropower generation, drinking water supply and ecosystem sustainability.
The department advised governments and local administrations to focus on:
- Water conservation measures
- Efficient water management
- Drought preparedness
- Agricultural contingency planning
- Early warning systems and heat action plans
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