The Met department has forecast further progress towards Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh by Friday, with the monsoon expected to advance into Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Jharkhand by the end of June.

IMD data, as per records since 1950, shows that this is the joint third-most delayed monsoon onset over Mumbai.

Last year, the monsoon arrived in Mumbai on May 26 — 16 days ahead of schedule and the earliest onset in 75 years. In contrast, the most delayed onset was recorded on June 25 in 1959, 2019 and 2023. The monsoon reached the city on June 24 in 1974 and on June 23 in 1981, matching this year’s date, according to IMD records.

“The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining parts of central Arabian Sea, some more parts of Maharashtra including Mumbai, remaining parts of Telangana and Odisha; and some more parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar on June 23,” the IMD said.

The weather department said conditions currently remain favourable for further advancement of monsoon.

Although the monsoon was declared to have arrived in Maharashtra on June 8, rainfall remained sparse across much of the state and central India in the following weeks. IMD data shows the country’s overall monsoon rainfall deficit stood at 43% till June 22, while central India recorded a deficit of 67%.

Despite the onset over Mumbai, experts said the rainfall shortfall is unlikely to be substantially reduced before the end of June. “The monsoon remains delayed and we are also missing a strong low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal. One expects that to form only around June 29, when we may see a push ahead,” said Mahesh Palawat, vice-president at Skymet.

“This includes further progress into some parts of the north Arabian Sea and Gujarat, some more parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, and some parts of Madhya Pradesh during the next two to three days,” the IMD said. It added that the monsoon is likely to reach the remaining parts of Jharkhand and Bihar and some areas of Uttar Pradesh during the subsequent three to four days.

The monsoon entered Kerala on June 4 this year, three days later than normal. Its progress into northwest India, including Delhi, has also been delayed. The normal onset date for Delhi is June 27.

On Tuesday, the northern limit of the monsoon was passing through Dahanu, Wardha, Raipur, Daltonganj and Motihari.

The IMD has projected this year’s monsoon rainfall at 90% of the long-period average, with El Niño conditions expected to suppress rainfall, particularly during the second half of the season. Nearly 60% of India’s net sown area depends on rain-fed agriculture, making large stretches of farmland vulnerable to erratic weather. A weak monsoon can hurt crop output, fuel food inflation and reduce rural incomes.