Retail tomato prices have risen 16% over the past month and 23% from a year earlier, according to data from the consumer affairs ministry. The average retail price stood at ₹42.5 per kg on June 30.

The pressure is also visible in wholesale markets, where prices are up 18% month-on-month and 28% year-on-year, indicating that higher procurement costs could continue to push up retail prices in the coming weeks.

“Prices in major centres are up between 30% and 50% owing to excessive heat that hit the crop in the months of February and March. Further, higher crude prices due to the West Asia war are adding to the logistics cost,” said Sanjay Gupta, managing director and chief executive officer of National Commodities Management Services Ltd (NCML).

The current supply squeeze comes at a crucial stage in the tomato production cycle. Tomato is a 60-90 day crop grown across three seasons. The kharif crop accounts for about 45% of annual production, followed by the rabi crop, which contributes 30-35%. The summer crop, sown during February and March, bridges supplies during the lean June-August period before fresh kharif arrivals reach the market.

This year’s summer crop was hit by excessive temperatures in major growing regions, reducing yields just as the market entered the seasonal lean period. Delayed kharif sowing due to an uneven monsoon has further raised concerns over the timing of fresh arrivals.

The government, in its second advance estimate, revised tomato production for 2025-26 down to 21.5 million tonnes from the earlier estimate of 22.7 million tonnes, a reduction of about 5%.

Ram Gopal Yadav, head of research at agAlabs, said the final output could be even lower than the revised estimate. “Prices usually rise between June and August because heavy rains disrupt transportation and supplies. This year, prices have increased even before widespread rains have arrived, which points to a bigger supply issue,” Yadav said.

According to Yadav, retail tomato prices could rise to ₹90-100 per kg during July and August if supplies remain tight and monsoon-related disruptions intensify.

Industry experts said delayed monsoon rains could further support prices by slowing kharif planting and delaying the arrival of fresh supplies.

“In the medium term, tomato prices are expected to remain firm through July-August. Furthermore, July is seasonally a lean period before early kharif supplies begin, which should continue to support prices,” said Pushan Sharma, director at Crisil Intelligence.

However, Sharma said a repeat of the sharp spikes seen in previous years is unlikely because staggered arrivals of the summer crop are helping bridge supply gaps.

“The upside is expected to be more moderate than the sharp seasonal spikes typically seen during this period, as staggered arrivals of the summer crop, especially from southern states where farmers undertook replanting following heat stress, are likely to supplement supplies to some extent,” Sharma said.

According to Crisil, wholesale tomato prices in key summer-crop producing states such as Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are currently trading at ₹1,200-1,800 per 100 kg, compared with around ₹2,220 per 100 kg in Delhi mandis.

Tomato prices had surged to as high as ₹300 per kg in several parts of the country in 2023 after an early heatwave reduced yields and heavy July rains disrupted transportation. The department of consumer affairs had then intervened by procuring tomatoes from major producing states, including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Maharashtra, for distribution in major consumption centres.